Evaluating Real-World COVID-19 Vaccine Effectiveness Using a Test-Negative Case-Control Design (preprint)

It is important to assess the extent to which the real-world effectiveness of marketed vaccines is consistent with that observed in the clinical trials, and to characterize how well vaccines prevent COVID-19 symptoms. We conducted a modified test-negative design (TND) to evaluate the RW effectiveness of three COVID-19 vaccines by leveraging data from an on-going, US community-based registry. Vaccine effectiveness was examined in two ways: considering cases who (1) tested positive for COVID-19 (695 cases, 1,786 controls) and who (2) tested positive with at least one moderate/severe COVID-19 symptom (165 cases, 2,316 controls). Any vaccination (full or partial) was associated with a 95% reduction in the odds of having a positive COVID-19 test [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 0.05 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.04, 0.06)]. Full vaccination was associated with an aOR of 0.03 (95% CI: 0.03, 0.05) while partial vaccination had an aOR of 0.08 (95% CI: 0.06, 0.12). Any vaccination was associated with a 71% reduction in the odds of testing positive and having at least one moderate/severe symptom (aOR=0.29 (95% CI: 0.20, 0.40)). High effectiveness was observed across all three vaccine manufacturers both for prevention of positive COVID-19 test results and prevention of moderate/severe COVID-19 symptoms.

How frequent are acute reactions to COVID-19 vaccination and who is at risk? (preprint)

Introduction: Our objective was to describe and compare self-reported side effects of COVID-19 vaccines in the USA. Methods: A web-based registry enrolled volunteers who received a COVID-19 vaccine between March 19 and July 15, 2021. We collected self-reported short-term side effects, medical consultation, hospitalization, and quality of life impact following completed vaccination regimens (Pfizer, Moderna, J&J). Results: We recruited 6,966 volunteers who completed their full course of vaccination (median age 48 years, IQR 35.0-62.0; 83.6% female): Pfizer 3,486; Moderna 2,857; J&J 623. Few (3.1%) sought medical care for post-vaccination side effects. Hospitalization (n=17; 0.3%) and severe allergic reactions (n=39; 0.6%) also were rare. Those with autoimmune disease or lung disease were approximately twice as likely to seek medical care (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 2.01 [95% CI: 1.39;2.92] and 1.70 [95% CI: 1.12;2.58] respectively). 92.4% of participants reported >1 side effect (median 3), with injection site reactions (78.9%), fatigue (70.3%), headache (49.0%) reported most frequently. More side effects were reported after the second dose of two-dose vaccines (medians: 1 vs. 2 for Pfizer and 1 vs. 3 for Moderna for first and second doses respectively) versus 3 for J&J's single-dose vaccine. For the employed, the median number of workdays missed was one. Diabetics and those vaccinated against influenza were substantially less likely to report >3 symptoms (aOR 0.68, 95% CI 0.56,0.82 and aOR 0.82, 95% CI 0.73,0.93, respectively.) Discussion: The total side effect burden was, not unexpectedly, greater with two-dose regimens but all three vaccines appear relatively safe. Very few subjects reported side effects serious enough to warrant medical care or reported post-vaccination hospitalization. While these findings do not address possible long-term effects, they do inform on their short-term safety and tolerability and will hopefully provide some reassurance and positively inform the benefit-risk and pharmacoeconomic assessment for all three vaccines. Clinicaltrials.gov NCT04368065